Promises
Ship dates, unit numbers, prices: we record what makers and their CEOs announced in public, and check after the due date what became of it.
“20,000 Optimus robots per week by the end of 2027.”
Musk also called the ramp 'somewhat bumpy'; analysts noted he tempered near-term expectations. (A separate Teslarati report of 2026-07-01 puts Giga Texas volume production at a targeted summer 2027; not stated in the TechCrunch source.)
Elon Musk · Oct 2026 · Due Dec 2027 · Source
“Digit deployments at GXO Statesville (NC) and Lebanon (TN) start early 2027.”
Agility Robotics / GXO · Oct 2026 · Due Mar 2027 · Source
“SPAC merger with Churchill Capital Corp XI closes in Q4 2026 (about 2026-11-04).”
Subject to shareholder approval.
Agility Robotics · Oct 2026 · Due Dec 2026 · Source
“First customer deliveries in H1 2027, European rollout in H2 2027”
No price or order channel yet.
He Xiaopeng · Oct 2026 · Due Dec 2027 · Source
“1,000 to 2,000 compact humanoids produced in 2027; ONE SN available early 2027”
Zhaopeng Chen (CEO, to Reuters) · Oct 2026 · Due Dec 2027 · Source
“Deliver Echo pre-orders (initial run of 250 units: 225 tabletop, 25 full body) in the second half of 2027”
Not yet due.
Realbotix · Oct 2026 · Due Dec 2027 · Source
“Continuous automated line producing over 1,000 robots per week by end of 2026.”
Internal target reported second-hand, not a public Tesla commitment.
Tesla managers (reported by The Information) · Sep 2026 · Due Dec 2026 · Source
“Digit 5 early customer access in H1 2027, general availability end of 2027.”
Announced 2026-09-15.
Agility Robotics · Sep 2026 · Due Dec 2027 · Source
“Beta (double payload) in Q4 2026; several hundred robots produced with Bosch in 2027; 150,000 units target by 2030.”
Company targets, no independent verification.
Humanoid / Artem Sokolov · Sep 2026 · Due Dec 2026 · Source
“AEON in production deployment at Plant Leipzig by end of 2026.”
Production tasks started June 2026; battery assembly tasks to move from the Innovation Garage into the factory in upcoming pilots.
Hexagon Robotics / BMW Group · Jun 2026 · Due Dec 2026 · Source
“Serial production of multi-million robots by 2030 (techfundingnews: 5 million).”
Company aspiration tied to the Series C; no current output figures.
NEURA Robotics / David Reger · Jun 2026 · Due Dec 2030 · Source
“Phantom 2 (twice the payload) later in 2026; US military testing within 12 to 18 months.”
Phantom MK-2 referenced with AMD partnership in July 2026; no verified launch.
Foundation Future Industries · Jun 2026 · Due Dec 2026 · Source
“More than 25,000 Atlas robots across Hyundai Motor and Kia plants and annual production capacity of 30,000 Atlas robots by 2028 (Hyundai plan stated at a JPMorgan investor session).”
Plan, not a contract. Oct 2026 supplier preparation for 10,000-unit purchase orders reported by KED Global (single source).
Hyundai Motor Group · May 2026 · Due Dec 2028 · Source · Outcome
“Schaeffler rollout starts December 2026 (Herzogenaurach), four-digit number of wheeled units by 2032.”
Start date inconsistently reported ('late 2026' vs December 2026).
Humanoid / Schaeffler · May 2026 · Due Dec 2026 · Source
“Begin deliveries of 1,000 humanoids to logistics centers in Q2 2026 (Caixin summary says 'thousands of units')”
No independent confirmation of delivered units found; reports say deliveries 'began'.
Robot Era (company statement via Dr. Web / Caixin summary) · May 2026 · Due Jun 2026 · Source · Outcome
“4,000 to 5,000 T800 delivered before end of 2026”
Company target; no verified output figure.
EngineAI · May 2026 · Due Dec 2026 · Source
“Output above 100,000 units per year by 2027 (first-year capacity 10,000).”
No independent output figures.
1X Technologies (per Bloomberg via eWeek) · Apr 2026 · Due Dec 2027 · Source
“V3 reveal around mid-2026.”
As of 2026-09-25 the demo had not happened (Electrek).
“Deliver about 5,000 humanoids in 2026; capacity 6,000 units, 10,000 by 2027”
1,000th Walker S2 delivered by 2026-07-23; roughly 4,000 more would be needed in five months.
UBTECH management (via Boerse Express) · Apr 2026 · Due Dec 2026 · Source · Outcome
“Reduce the Walker S2 unit price from about USD 80,000 to about USD 20,000 by 2027”
No evidence yet.
UBTECH management (via Boerse Express) · Apr 2026 · Due Dec 2027 · Source
“AgiBot plans to expand G2 deployment at Longcheer to 100 robots by Q3 2026 (the release places the sentence after the Longcheer details)”
Due 2026-09 has passed; no confirmation that 100 G2 are running at Longcheer. Latest report found (ai2.work, 2026-06-08) calls the initial deployment 'a handful of units'. Treat as unconfirmed/overdue.
AgiBot (via press reports) · Apr 2026 · Due Sep 2026 · Source
“At least 1,000 AEON humanoids across Schaeffler's global production by 2032.”
A plan; one outlet gives 2033; binding status not stated.
Hexagon Robotics / Schaeffler · Apr 2026 · Due Dec 2032 · Source
“Scale production to 1,000 units per month”
No date given; no verification.
UniX AI · Apr 2026 · Source
“Manufacture thousands of humanoids by end of 2026.”
Independent April 2026 lab visit: about one robot per day, 'a research lab, not a factory'. 10,000 by year-end looks implausible on that rate; the 50,000-by-2027 figure in some secondary sources was not found in primary reporting.
Foundation Future Industries · Apr 2026 · Due Dec 2026 · Source · Outcome
“About ten Calvin robots in place by end of 2026.”
No count published; trial at Douai ongoing.
Renault Group · Mar 2026 · Due Dec 2026 · Source
“350 Calvin humanoids in French and Spanish factories by end of 2027.”
A target; some aggregator sites wrongly describe it as an order.
Renault Group · Mar 2026 · Due Dec 2027 · Source
“Large numbers of humanoid robots deployed across Xiaomi's production facilities within five years”
Trials only so far; unit count undisclosed.
Lei Jun (CEO, Xiaomi) · Mar 2026 · Due Mar 2031 · Source
“Beta deliveries to households in 2026 (Thanksgiving 2026 per one report)”
Not yet verified as of 2026-10-31.
Tony Zhao, CEO · Mar 2026 · Due Nov 2026 · Source
“Newest version of Apollo to debut in 2026.”
Apollo 2 unveiled 2026-06-30.
CEO Jeff Cardenas / Apptronik · Feb 2026 · Due Dec 2026 · Source · Outcome
“Initial on-site trials of the humanoid welding robot at Sestri Ponente by end of 2026”
No trial reported as of 2026-10-31.
Fincantieri / Generative Bionics · Feb 2026 · Due Dec 2026 · Source
“4NE1 Mini deliveries from April 2026 (page then said 'Spring 2026').”
Product page in October 2026 says 'expected to be available in 2026'; no shipments confirmed.
“Humanoid factory in Nuevo Leon, Mexico, creating 2,000+ jobs; hardware cost as low as USD 10,000 per unit”
No opening date given.
Reflex Robotics · Feb 2026 · Source
“Production of the product Atlas starts immediately; 2026 fleets ship to Hyundai RMAC and Google DeepMind 'in the coming months'.”
RMAC opened in September 2026 as a training centre (a customer pilot is not documented). Boston Dynamics has not published unit counts or confirmed Google DeepMind delivery date in the sources reviewed.
Boston Dynamics / Hyundai Motor Group · Jan 2026 · Due Dec 2026 · Source · Outcome
“Additional customers beyond Hyundai and Google DeepMind from early 2027.”
No further customers named as of 2026-10-31.
Boston Dynamics · Jan 2026 · Due Mar 2027 · Source
“4NE1 Gen 3.5 available at the end of 2026.”
One aggregator expected first deliveries from June 2026; NEURA's own page says late 2026. No customer deliveries confirmed as of 2026-10-31.
NEURA Robotics · Jan 2026 · Due Dec 2026 · Source
“Proof-of-concept deployments with multiple customers in 2026”
No named customer found as of 2026-10-31.
Mobileye / Mentee · Jan 2026 · Due Dec 2026 · Source
“Begin production with partners in 2027, prepare commercial deployment in structured environments in 2028, household deployments from 2030”
First experimental batch with Aumovio planned for 2027.
Mobileye / Mentee · Jan 2026 · Due Dec 2028 · Source
“Complete deliveries of first 1,000-unit overseas order in Q2 2026”
No delivery confirmation found; reports conflict on whether the order is for the N2 or the Bumi.
Noetix Robotics · Jan 2026 · Due Jun 2026 · Source
“H2 will begin phased deliveries in Q3 2026”
Page still carries the claim on 2026-10-14; no confirmation of first deliveries found.
RobotShop (dealer, not the manufacturer) · 2026 · Due Sep 2026 · Source · Outcome
“Commercial launch in Q4 2026 (reported by third parties; the company names no quarter)”
Not found in any company statement; the company's own materials describe a platform ready to enter its commercialization pipeline without a date. A third-party product guide mentions a commercial launch in late 2026. Treat as unconfirmed.
Generative Bionics (via secondary compilation) · 2026 · Due Dec 2026 · Source
“Humanoid mainly used in controlled environments such as factories, remote-operated, by about 2030; autonomous in unstructured environments by about 2040”
Long-range roadmap, nothing to test yet.
Kawasaki Heavy Industries · 2026 · Due 2030 · Source
“Up to 10,000 humanoids to EQT portfolio companies between 2026 and 2030.”
Non-binding intent.
1X Technologies / EQT · Dec 2025 · Due Dec 2030 · Source
“First T800 shipments no later than 2026-06-02”
First batch announced off the line in late May; no customer receipt or unit count confirmed.
“Schaeffler integrates a four-digit number of humanoids by 2035.”
Intent; binding status not stated.
Schaeffler / NEURA · Nov 2025 · Due Dec 2035 · Source
“IRON mass production by end of 2026”
Line commissioned 2026-09; XPeng has not disclosed capacity and trade press stresses the first unit does not equal mass production.
XPeng / He Xiaopeng · Nov 2025 · Due Dec 2026 · Source · Outcome
“Series production of Agile ONE in Bavaria from early 2026”
No confirmation of series production found; in 2026-10 the stated production start for ONE S/SN is 'by end of 2026'. Judged from absence of evidence, not from an announced delay.
“Commercialisation of the Miroki robot from 2026”
Commercial Mirokai launched in June 2026; no price or deliveries published; an end-2026 mass-production target is not confirmed by a primary source.
Aeroports de Lyon / Enchanted Tools · Nov 2025 · Due Dec 2026 · Source · Outcome
“KPI targets for the BMW task: 84 s cycle time, over 99% placement success per shift, zero interventions per shift”
Figure lists these as targets but does not report whether they were achieved.
Figure AI · Nov 2025 · Source
“US deliveries of NEO start in 2026.”
As of 2026-10-31 no independently verified customer delivery; a mid-2026 1X statement says 'some of you will get your NEO this year, some will get them later'.
1X Technologies · Oct 2025 · Due Dec 2026 · Source · Outcome
“International deliveries (incl. Europe) in 2027.”
1X Technologies · Oct 2025 · Due Dec 2027 · Source
“Unveil Optimus V3 in Q1 2026.”
Moved to 'closer to production start' in April 2026; no public V3 unveiling confirmed in the sources reviewed as of late September 2026 (could not verify after the Q3 2026 call).
“BotQ first-generation line capable of up to 12,000 humanoids per year.”
Figure reported a rate of one robot per hour in April 2026; delivered units to customers are undisclosed, so the capacity claim cannot be checked.
“Framework agreements covering several thousand K2 units, worth hundreds of millions of yuan”
No delivery or order-conversion figures found; a wire report cites only about CNY 47 million of orders in hand (unverified).
“Prototype humanoid welding robots by end of 2026, field testing and commercial deployment from 2027”
Due date not yet reached on 2026-10-31; company still reports a teleoperated welding demo.
Persona AI / HD Hyundai · May 2025 · Due Dec 2026 · Source · Outcome
“Mass production of Atom by mid-2025”
First batch delivered in June 2025 (Nagoya) and 'mass production' announced in early 2026; no volumes ever stated.
“Apptronik says it targets 2026 to begin manufacturing commercial Apollo units; Jabil would produce the robot once Apollo is deemed commercially viable (reported).”
Due 2026-12 not yet reached, but no start of commercial manufacturing is confirmed: as of 2026-10, Apollo 2 is described as a data-collection/development platform and Apollo 3 as the commercial product without a date. Likely to slip into 2027.
“Tesla builds about 5,000-10,000 Optimus in 2025 and several thousand do useful work in Tesla factories by end of 2025.”
Per reporting, only hundreds to about 1,000 built in 2025 and production was paused mid-2025; in January 2026 Musk reportedly conceded no robots were doing useful work.
“Path to 100,000 robots over the next four years.”
Company-reported output: >350 by 2026-04-29 (1,000 unconfirmed). Reaching 100,000 by 2029 needs a rate well above the stated 12,000/year first-generation capacity.
Figure AI / Brett Adcock · Jan 2025 · Due Jan 2029 · Source · Outcome
“500 to 1,000 Walker S-series units produced and delivered by end of 2025”
Outcome not verified in this pass; see the ubtech-walker-s2 record for 2025/2026 delivery reporting.
UBTECH · Jan 2025 · Due Dec 2025 · Source
“About 1,000 Kuavo units delivered in 2025”
Prospectus shows 577 Kuavo units sold in 2025.
“Deliver the first 279 Clone Alpha units to customers, with production from January 2026 per one aggregator”
No evidence of shipments found as of 2026-10-31.
“Ship K-Bot to the first 100 Founder's Edition customers at USD 8,999”
First units delivered 2025-09-26; remaining pre-orders cancelled and refunded in November 2025.
“RoboFab (Salem, Oregon) to produce hundreds of Digit in its first year and scale to more than 10,000 robots per year.”
Stated capability, not output. Revenue of US$1.8M in 2025 implies a small number of robots delivered; Agility does not publish the fleet size.
“GR-1 mass production in late 2023, thousands of units in 2024”
Plan confirmed by Wikipedia ('Plans were made to begin mass production by the end of 2023 and to deliver thousands of units in 2024'). No public evidence of thousands of units delivered was found; only small batches to research customers are reported. The outcome 'missed' is an inference from the absence of shipment data, not a documented figure.
Fourier · Jul 2023 · Due Dec 2024 · Source